Analyzing the Winners at War Top Six

The new king or queen of Survivor will be crowned in a couple of days. As it stands, there are five people left with one person to still return from the Edge of Extinction. These people are Tony Vlachos, Denise Stapely, Sarah Lacina, Ben Driebergen and Michele Fitzgerald. Each of these players have different paths to victory, some of them being far simpler than others. Starting from the least likely to win, I'm analyzing what each player must do to be the sole survivor.

Ben Driebergen

All season Ben has given the impression of being completely outclassed by his fellow castaways. In the original Sele Ben was seen as erratic and unpredicatable, at Yara he made enemies out of both Boston Rob and Adam, and ever since the merge he has made more enemies in Jeremy and been a loyal lap dog to Tony and Sarah.

Bens current path to the end is probably the most straightfoward because everyone wants to sit with him. There is a 99% chance that Ben will be at Final Tribal Council especially when you remember he is holding an idol. However, Ben faces a huge battle against the jury. Bens current endgame strategy is to sit there with Tony and Sarah, with the possiblity of swapping out Tony for Denise. That combination would be suicide, but honestly I really don't think Ben wins in any final tribal combination.

The only interesting aspect Ben brings to this endgame is being a threat for the fire making challenge. Ben is most likely the fastest firemaker on the island and he could be used as a weapon to eliminate a threat (Tony) at final four. This might result in Tony taking out Ben at five so that he doesn't risk losing fire to Ben at four.

The Edge Returnee

It's hard to predict who will return from the Edge but the returnee will have to play a near perfect game to win. This starts with rallying the troops against Tony and Sarah. The returnee will easily be able to gain Michele but Ben and Denise will be more reluctant.

My checklist for the returnee:

1. Convince Ben and Denise that they lose versus Tony/Sarah
2. Eliminate one of Tony/Sarah before final four
   • A scenario could be Michele going at six, Denise and Ben flipping at five and sending Sarah home after Tony misplays his idol.
3. Win immunity at final four
4. Bring Michele/Denise to final tribal council
5. Send Ben to fire against Tony/Sarah, where Ben wins.
6. Convince the jury that their game of overthrowing Tony/Sarah is stronger than Michele/Denises underdog games.

After listing all of this, it is apparent the stars would have to align. It is very unlikely that both Denise and Ben would flip and unlikely that Tony would misplay his idol.

Out of the possible returnees, I think it's most likely that Natalie, Tyson, Boston Rob or Parvati return. With Natalie or Tyson being the most likely to win if they get back in, considering they have idols.

Denise Stapley

Denise's game is interesting to me. She made the most cutthroat move of the season by taking out the Queen but since then, there hasn't been more than whispers from her. It makes me worried that she is being nieve regarding how good her resume stacks up against Tony and Sarah, because she does not win against them.

Her current path to the end is similar to the returnee, get both Sarah and Tony out. What Denise has going for her is that she doesn't need to play a perfect game, she just needs to make one more move against the powerhouses. If she can add a Tony or Sarah blindside to her resume, it might be enough to secure her a win.

Michele Fitzgerald

I put Michele as slightly more likely to win than Denise purely because the editing of the show is more Michele favoured than Denise favoured. Michele has the classic underdog story and if she keeps pulling out immunity wins (something she did in Kaoh Rong), she could make it all the way.

In my mind, if Michele makes it to the end, it won't be with Tony or Sarah. This also means that if Michele makes it to the end, she wins. That being said, she has the hardest route to get to the end and she has her work cut out for her.

Tony Vlachos

The top two are really interchangeable. Tony has been dominating the season ever since the Sophie blindside. If he were to win, his game would be in contention for the strongest win in survivor history.

The reason I don't have him as number one is because I want to believe that someone will wake up and finally realize that they don't beat Tony. This might happen when the returnee comes back and tells the finalists what the jurys perception is.

The thing is, Tony's social game is so good that nobody has turned on him yet and at this point it looks like nobody will. With an idol in his pocket, Tony only has to survive one traditional vote and then make fire to be at final tribal council.

Sarah Lacina

Tonys partner in crime, Sarah, is my pick for most likely to win. Sarah does not beat Tony in a final three. That being said, there are three votes until final three, three opportunites to eliminate Tony and I have faith that Sarah will use one of those opportunites to vote him out.

Sarah has played a fantastic game so far. She has the most connections on the jury and has made no enemies. She is always on the right side of the vote and is seen as someone who is playing very aggressively. In a typical season her game would standout. If she sits at the end with Tony she deserves to lose.

The scenario that seems the most obvious to me is that Tony, Sarah, Denise and Ben make final four, Sarah wins final immunity, takes Denise to the end, and Ben beats Tony at fire.