Survivor 41 First Impressions and Predictions

I originally created this blog so I could talk about Survivor, and with COVID interrupting those plans, my opportunity has finally come to gush about a brand new season. At the time of writing this, season 41 of Survivor is a day away. In this post I'll be making some hopefully correct predictions of who has a shot of being the sole survivor.

My first big takeaway after reviewing the cast is everyone seems to be a fan of the show. There isn't a single person who I can count out just on virtue of them being unaware. I think there will be a large amount of people playing way too hard, way too fast, and there will be a lot of people flaming out.

I also think this is gonna be a strategically heavy season. In part because of the condensed 26-day length, but also because of the eagerness of the players. From what I can gather, these guys are gonna hyper focus on the gameplay and we might not get many "out there" characters. I'm hoping some of their personalities will still shine through but we might have a season full of game-bots.

I'm gonna go through some of my favourites to win, some of my dark horse picks and make some other bold predictions. If I don't mention someone in this post, it's because I believe they have a 0% chance to win.

The Protagonists

I think Ricard Foye and Evvie Jagoda are two people that are gonna get a lot of screen time. They have strong, bubbly personalities. They are social butterflies, and they both seem like natural narrators. They also both seem like strong winner candidates. They've gone through their fair share of struggles in their lives, and have an endearing way of reflecting that in their personalities.

For Ricard specifically, he seems too perfect. He's gonna go far, maybe even top five, but he will be this seasons fallen angel. A part of me just assumes he will get sniped at some point. Because everything about him screams winner, and the try-hards of this season will want him out for that reason alone.

I feel a little better about Evvie. The target won't be as squarely on their back because I think Evvie is more flawed than Ricard. Their personality is a little abrasive and I can see them not getting along with everyone. Evvie's game will be about locking down an early alliance, the first few days on the beach are the most important for them. If Evvie makes it deep, they will have a strong case for winning.

Is Narcissism a Virtue?

Sydney Segal and David Voce are two players that immediately stand out, not necessarily for good reasons. They both have egos larger than Probst's cargo short collection. In all of their interviews and pre-game press they relentlessly exude narcissism and even proclaim themselves as blunt and arrogant people. But they both seem very self aware of this, and they both seem willing to subdue their egos to benefit their own game.

The real question becomes how much are they gonna change their personalities while playing? Because if Sydney or Voce play as themselves, they won't win. However, I see attributes in both of them, such as their cutthroat attitudes, that give me confidence in their gameplay.

My prediction is that Voce will have an easier time at this than Sydney. He has more life experience and a pretty good story about his path towards neurosurgery. I think Voce could win, Sydney is a bit of a longshot but still possible.

Do the Older Players Stand a Chance?

It's refreshing to see a large amount of older players casted on this season. There are five players older than 40. And out of the five I think Tiffany Seely and Brad Reese have the best chance to win. Old players historically don't do well on Survivor. It's an immediate stigma that is nearly impossible to conquer. In the early stages people want any reason to vote someone out and age seems to be a good default.

I have a really good feeling about Tiffany though. Her personality isn't overbearing, she's not threatening, and she's been getting really positive pre-game press. I get the impression the shows already hinting she will go far. And looking at her starting tribe, I don't see her being in any danger pre-merge. If Tiffany locks in a strong alliance I could see her riding it all the way to the end.

Brad Reese is the other old timer that stands out. He's a humble cattle rancher from Wyoming and seems like he'll be an absolute work horse. He comes off as really well spoken, he's open minded and I think he'll do a good job of shaking off the old guy stigma. But Brad doesn't seem to have a strategic bone in his body. I can see Brad making it far, but I'm not sure if he will have any sort of resume at the end.

Other Favourites

Shantel Smith and Deshawn Radden are two other people worth mentioning. They both have all the qualities that I look for in a potential winner but are also low-key enough to not be too "obvious". Deshawn oozes charisma, he is an insanely likeable guy, but also seems calm and level-headed. In his interviews Deshawn talks about wanting to be a villain. He wants to stab people in the back and this cutthroat attitude excites me. My worry with Deshawn is that he may get over shadowed by some of the more exuberant personalities and could flame out hard. If Deshawn finds himself as the figurehead of an alliance, he'll be in a good position to win.

I love Shantel and I was very close to making her my winner pick. She seems to be the full package and has a serious drive to win. But some of her interview answers were off-putting to me and gave off a vibe that she lacks some self-awareness. This makes me suspicious of how her personality might respond to the elements. I just have a weird feeling that Shantel will be chaotic once she is in the game. But if she can keep it cool and calculated, I could easily see her winning.

Honorable Mentions

Sara Wilson and JD Robinson both seem like savvy youngsters but I don't see them pulling out a win. Erika Casupanan also seems to have all the tools that a winner would need but I think she'll get strong armed by more boisterous players.

If I had to rank the players in order of likeliness to win it would be:

1. Evvie Jagoda
2. Deshawn Radden
3. Shantel Smith
4. Tiffany Seely
5. Ricard Foye
6. David Voce
7. JD Robinson
8. Sydney Segal
9. Erika Casupanan
10. Sara Wilson
11. Brad Reese

...Everyone else