Survivor 41 Final Five Predictions

The finale of Survivor 41 airs tonight, and before the dust settles I want to take this chance to make my final predictions. It's exciting because there's multiple players that are in winning contention. I can see arguments for why 4/5 of these people justifiably win. I'm going to run through all five of them, in order of least likely to most likely to win.

Heather Aldret

Heather had a 0% chance of winning before the season started and she still has a 0% chance of winning. She hasn't been shown playing the game at all. I don't know if she was sleeping out there the whole time or if the production just didn't want to show her. But Heather is the goatiest of all goats right now.

Deshawn Radden

It's pretty humorous reflecting on Deshawn's game. He came into the merge in possibly the best position out of anyone. He played smart and low-key for a long time. But he betrayed Shan too soon. He needed to ride out that POC alliance for as long as possible. And even though it wasn't entirely his decision (it was a great move for Ricard), he should have stopped it.

And regardless of all that, Deshawn's game was still solid up until the last episode. The man truly kamikazed his game. Nobody on the jury respects him. I think people on the jury actively disrespect him. He will have an uphill battle if he gets to final tribal, where his competition will effortlessly blow him out of the water.

Xander Hastings

Xander is similar to Deshawn. I don't think the jury respects his game. Permanently the underdog, his scrappy playstyle has been fun to watch. But he never found control. The only move he can possibly claim is denying Liana's "Knowledge is Power" advantage. I have Xander in third because I think he beats Deshawn and Heather. But that's still a close race between him and Deshawn.

I love Xander though, and he would be such an iconic winner.

Ricard Foye

Ricard without a doubt has played the best game of anyone. He and Shan dominated the pre-merge, decimating their entire tribe. Then Ricard came into the merge with a huge shield. He won a couple of immunities. Then with perfect timing he betrayed Shan and took control of his own game. Ricard wins in a landslide if he makes it to the end. With two immunity challenges and one fire making challenge left, it doesn't seem all that unlikely. But he has to win those challenges first.

In my first post I predicted that Ricard would go far (final five even) but he would be the seasons fallen angel. I still believe this and expect it to come true. Ricard is the Goliath standing in Erika's way.

Erika Casupanan

The top two could arguably be flipped. Erika's played a very quiet game so far. She hasn't made any enemies but also hasn't done anything impressive. Most importantly though, she has made no mistakes. The jury views Deshawn and Xander as impulsive and immature. In contrast, I think the jury will respect Erika's more calm and calculated approach. If Erika can get Ricard eliminated before the final three (and make the final three herself), the win is hers.

An Erika win would be pretty unconventional considering her edit. She didn't exist pre-merge and then got upgraded to a supporting role after the merge. Only recently has she felt like a main character. But her win wouldn't be too out of the ordinary. Many previous winners played safe and calculated like Erika. Danni Boatwright and Sophie Clarke are two that come to mind. I'd be happy with an Erika win.