Survivor 44 First Impressions and Predictions

I have a really good feeling about Survivor 44. CBS and Jeff Probst have been pumping unprecedented levels of hype recently. The cast looks great, the medieval theme is badass, and I think we're due for a banger. I had a hard time coming up with first impressions for this cast because everyone is very surface level competent. Even the goofier characters this season have win equity. So I'm gonna still do my best to make predictions, some of my takes are making huge leaps though.

Zero Chancers

With Carson, it's a tale as old as time. Every season there is a young nerdy super-fan, and every season they fail to socially integrate. It might be the life experience, but I have no faith in Carsons archetype in this new era. Social game has become the cornerstone of Survivor, and I can't see Carson crushing this aspect.

On the bottom I also have a pretty bold choice of Maddy Pomilla. Maddy is one of several women this season I'm putting in a category I call: "go on girl, give us nothing". Maddy is a triple threat, but being a triple threat is nearly the baseline for getting cast these days. Watching her pre-season press just doesn't inspire much in me, and usually that indicates uninspiring gameplay, but I'm probably grasping at straws.

Long Shots

Kane's a cool guy that I want to do well. Canadian, quirky, similar archetype to me. Looking at his starting tribe has me a bit cautious though. Orange is gonna have a hard time choosing who to vote out first, and my gut tells me that if they go to tribal, Kane could be an easy consensus. I think Kane will have a hard time making the merge, but he definitely has potential.

Carolyn is great, and I'm sure everyone's hoping she lasts as long as possible. It's so fun watching people like her geek out about Survivor. I think people like Carolyn have a hard time managing their threat levels, because they are so unapologetically themselves. But at least they make for great TV. Matthew falls into a similar boat, where I think he's an amazing personality that will be universally liked, but he won't manage his threat level well.

Dark Horses

Two people that have a great shot are Claire Rafson and Josh Wilder. Some people claim they are a triple threat, but with these guys I actually believe it. Josh specifically has an incredibly compelling story about his condition, getting a kidney transplant at a young age, and living for the deceased girl that donated it. Claire and Josh are textbook Survivor players, which is why I can't predict them. It's never the person you most suspect (and sometimes it's Gabler).

A couple of years ago I would have told you that the "strong buff guy" has a 0% chance to win Survivor. But after watching Danny (41), Jonathon and Mike (42) and Cody (43) all make it insanely deep, I think that stigma is gone. People just don't target challenge beasts in this new era, they are kept pre-merge for challenges and there's always bigger fish post-merge. This is why I think Brandon has a really good chance.

Winner Contenders

I really like Matt's vibe. Super humble, well-spoken guy. Obviously smart, deceptively athletic, and he claims to be great socially. Matt's the kind of guy who could pull off hiding his threat level. Nothing too bold to say here, Matt seems like an incredibly safe pick.

Building on my thesis that I started with Brandon, I think Danny could really pop off. He reminds me a lot of a younger Mike Turner, and I thought Mike played a fantastic game of Survivor. Danny's gonna be incredibly valuable to his tribe, probably well liked, and his strength won't be held against him. If Danny proves his strategic prowess, there's no reason he can't win.

Frannie's a lot of fun. She has amazing Maryanne-esque energy, which I think will integrate her into her tribe seamlessly. And I think she has a lot of game in her. A problem I see with younger players is they can't hustle when the cookies crumble. Frannie has the spunk needed to kick-ass when push comes to shove. Frannie could be targeted early if she's a complete liability in challenges, but hopefully she isn't. She's the perfect middle of the road concoction of everything a winner needs, and I just think she'll be fun to root for.

Here is my final ranking:

Contenders

1. Frannie Marin
2. Danny Massa
3. Matt Blankinship

Dark Horses

4. Brandon Cottom
5. Josh Wilder
6. Helen Li
7. Claire Rafson
8. Lauren Harpe

Long Shots

9. Jaime Lynn Ruiz
10. Matthew Grinstead-Mayle
11. Kane Fritzler
12. Carolyn Wiger
13. Bruce Perreault

Zero Chancers

14. Maddy Pomilla
15. Heidi Lagares-Greenblatt
16. Sarah Wade
17. Yam yam
18. Carson Garrett