Survivor 44 Final Predictions

I've been meaning to post more. It's been a while partly because life in Toronto has been hectic, but mostly because I don't have a ton to say about this season. Survivor 44 feels very fun, but very vanilla. Great characters with great personalities, but ultimately uninspiring gameplay. At least nothing worthy of a blog post. And by the way, vanilla isn't a bad thing. Survivor 44 has been refreshingly devoid of bullshit twists since the merge.

Anyways, this post isn't a season review, I'll have more to say in the retrospective. I want to take some time to assess the games of the final six, and predict who will win. Let's cut to the chase: the only people worth considering are the Tika 3. Lauren, Heidi and Jaime are all NPCs in the story of Carolyn, Carson and Yam Yam.

Yam Yam is my favourite, by far. If I had my choice Yam Yam would win. He's hilarious in a way I could never get tired of. Every confessional he's just dropping bangers. Yam Yam's social game is also insane. The way he ingratiates himself with people is a masterclass in Survivor social strategy. Him and Josh's relationship is a great example, where Yam Yam wins Josh over even though Josh wants to hate him. Yam Yam has been playing hard all season, with no luxury of being under the radar. His name was the target for so many consecutive votes, yet he always found a way through. King shit.

Carson is a tricky one for me. He's played a super clean game. Super social, super likeable. At every corner Carson has people clamoring to work with him. OG Tika, Ratu tribe swap, post merge, Carson has always been in the fold. But I don't know if Carson has really played Survivor. I mean, of course he has. Tika's dominance owes a lot to Carson. But in general I feel like Tika dominating has meant they haven't had to scramble much. Their opposition was pretty pathetic. In my eyes Carson has had control this whole game, but he hasn't impressed me. I'd be shocked if he won over Yam Yam.

Finally, Carolyn has the power of narrative behind her. The Survivor gods want it to be Carolyn, the fandom want it to be Carolyn, and the editors want it to be Carolyn. The ultimate underdog story. They laughed at her for being unaware, only to be the most aware and savvy player all along. I'm not sure if I buy into what Carolyn's cooking, but it does make for a great story. I think her game is very flawed, and not as genius as some would claim. But all that's standing in Carolyn's way is a good final tribal performance. If she can convince this jury that she was the puppet master, Carolyn deserves the win.

It'll come down to who actually makes it to final tribal council. My prediction is that Carson will fall short, probably going home at the fire making challenge. I think Carolyn will win, if she makes it all the way. I'm predicting a historic tribal council performance from Carolyn, where she sways the jury into voting her over Yam Yam. Otherwise Yam Yam wins if he gets there without Carolyn.