Survivor 47 First Impressions and Predictions

We are in a modern golden age of Survivor. 45 and 46 were both fantastic seasons, by new era standards, and Survivor 47 starts in only one day. This cast is hungry and I can tell they will play hard. I'm really excited to dive into another set of predictions, so let's get into it.

Zero Chancers

Holy hell we got some game bots this season. Gabe is dead in the water. Bro was getting shade pre-game for how stone-faced he was. Anyone who can’t understand that the social game starts at Ponderosa can’t possibly win Survivor.

Rome also speaks about the game as if it’s purely strategy based. He’s a recent fan, who binged the whole show this past year, so I think he hasn’t grasped the underlying nuance yet. Survivor is a social game. The most social player will always win, this is clearly evident in the new era. I mean, both Rome and Gabe are fans of Russell Hantz. That’s all I gotta say.

Long Shots

Almost everyone in this section, I don’t have a specific reason to place so low. I just don’t think they have the juice to win. Sierra, Kyle, and Kishan especially I think have the personalities to excel, but I can’t see them dominating Survivor.

Andy I really like, and honestly in a vacuum Andy could win Survivor. Hell, Andy could win Survivor 47. I just think Andy is gonna fall into the vein of Owen, Jake, or Ben. A really affable and likable guy, who will find himself with no agency in the game and probably just be strung along. Watching Andy play a strong Survivor game would be fun, but I don’t think he’ll find himself in that position.

Dark Horses

This is the part where I acknowledge that my top eight has only one dude. Which is amazing and hilarious. I think this season has a lot of very focused, badass women, and a lot of goofy, quirky dudes. TK comes off as the most magnetic and personable of all the guys. He obviously has his size as a clear obstacle, but I think people will be drawn to his strength.

I’ve been focusing a lot on personalities in this post. What I’ve realized is that in the new era, the person that wins is generally very socially warm. Tiyana is really smart, savvy, and likable. But their personality doesn’t hit the nail on the head for what I expect from a potential winner. Just a little too much mean girl energy.

I've been flip-flopping on Anika. I really like her. She is bubbly and warm. But also a game bot. Anika wants to play like Sarah Lacina... okay... that could work. But I think a genuine social game will trounce a Sarah Lacina "fake" social game. I almost trust her enough to looks past the "Strategy, Strategy, Strategy" mindset. But if im being honest, she'll rub people the wrong way.

Winner Picks

Genevieve is a lawyer, she’s Canadian, and she’s surprisingly quirky. She procrastinated her Survivor training because she got addicted to Baldurs Gate 3. Genevieve has that Dee/Kenzie personality I’m looking for. She’ll slip into her tribe like a glove. The classic concern is whether she’ll manage her threat level. I discounted Kenzie last season for this reason, and I’m cautious to do that again.

Sue Smey, the 59 year old self-described Sigma Female, is gonna almost win Survivor 47. Three people on Sue’s tribe want to work with her, based purely on first impressions. She’s literally in the majority before the game starts. I think people are really gonna respect her, and value her as an alliance member. Sue’s big issue is her obvious threat level. There's huge risk of being a Janet or a Maria when the final 5 comes. This is guaranteed.

On this cast of gamebots, Teeny is one of few people who emphasized their social game. I'm really repeating myself a lot in this post, but SURVIVOR IS A SOCIAL GAME. In Teeny's words, they're not a numbers person, they're a "soul" person. They compared themselves to Mike White. Huge green flag. Incredibly based. I can absolutely see Teeny being heavily underestimated, for probably no fair reason, and yet they'll have everyone running to them with information. The more I think about Teeny, the more I realize this is the winner pick.

Winner Picks:

1. Teeny
2. Sue
3. Genvieve
4. Aysha

Dark Horses:

5. Anika
6. Tiyana
7. TK
8. Rachel

Long Shots:

9. Kishan
10. Sam
11. Andy
12. Caroline
13. Kyle
14. Sierra

No Chance:

15. Sol
16. Jon
17. Rome
18. Gabe